There is no doubt that the world’s tourism industry will look back on 2009 as one of the toughest years in history. On top of a series of political tensions and natural disasters, the industry had to face the fall-out from the economic crisis and the A (H1N1) influenza pandemic. While the industry has been tested often in the past, never has it had to contend with so many challenging issues at the same time. Last quarter of 2009 sees return to growth in international tourism International tourist arrivals fell by 4% in 2009 but the 2%upswing in the last quarter of the year indicates a change of trend after the drop of 10%, 7% and 2% in the first three quarters respectively. Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East led the recovery with growth already positive in both regions in the second half of 2009,according to the January edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.“The figures of recent months suggest that recovery is underway and even somewhat earlier and at a stronger pace than initially expected”, said UNWTO Secretary-General, Taleb Rifai. Receipts for 2009 are estimated to have decreased by 6% given that as in previous crises, consumers tended to trade down, travel closer to home or for lesser time. In several destinations domestic tourism endured the crisis better and even grew significantly, often with the support of specific government measures. This was the case among many other countries, of Brazil, China and Spain, where the domestic market, representing a large share of the total, contributed to partially offsetting the decline in international tourism.

2010 – A “year of transformation”
Overall economic indicators also suggest an increasingly solid basis to regain optimism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated at the beginning of this year that the global recovery is occurring “significantly” faster than expected. Against this backdrop UNWTO forecasts growth in international tourist arrivals of between 3% and 4% in 2010. By region, Asia is expected to continue showing the strongest rebound, while Europe and the Americas are likely to recover at a more moderate pace. Growth is expected to return at a stronger pace also to the Middle East while Africa will continue its positive trend benefiting from the extra boost provided by the2010 FIFA World Cupin South Africa. As a result, 2010 while still being a demanding year, promises to be a ‘year of transformation’.
On the negative side, unemployment is expected to continue rising with economic growth still fragile in major source markets, especially in Europe and the USA. Furthermore, oil prices remain volatile and taxes might rise to balance public accounts. Non-economic challenges also continue. On the one hand, security threats and the potential of increased related hassle and costs for travelers remain. On the other, experience from previous pandemics shows that the evolution of theH1N1 influenza still poses uncertainty. While these factors will do little to increase tourism demand, consumer confidence, so crucial for tourism growth, seems to be picking up, while interest rates and inflation are expected to remain low, easing perspectives for tourism businesses

grew significantly, often with the support of specific government measures. This was the case amongmany other countries, of Brazil, China and Spain, where the domestic
market, representing a large share of the total, contributed to partially offsetting the decline in international tourism.

2010 – A “year of transformation”
Overall economic indicators also suggest an increasingly solid basis to regain optimism. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated at the beginning of this year that the global recovery is occurring “significantly” faster than expected. Against this backdrop UNWTO forecasts growth in international tourist arrivals of between 3% and 4% in 2010. By region, Asia is expected to continue showing the strongest rebound, while Europe and the Americas are likely to recover at a more moderate pace. Growth is expected to return at a stronger pace also to the Middle East while Africa will continue its positive trend benefiting from the extra boost provided by the2010 FIFA World Cupin South Africa. As a result, 2010 while still being a demanding year, promises to be a ‘year of transformation’.
On the negative side, unemployment is expected to continue rising with economic growth still fragile in major source markets, especially in Europe and the USA. Furthermore, oil prices remain volatile and taxes might rise to balance public accounts. Non-economic challenges also continue. On the one hand, security threats and the potential of increased related hassle and costs for travelers remain. On the other, experience from previous pandemics shows that the evolution of theH1N1 influenza still poses uncertainty. While these factors will do little to increase tourism demand, consumer confidence, so crucial for tourism growth, seems to be picking up, while interest rates and inflation are expected to remain low, easing perspectives for tourism businesses and bringing some relief to households. In this context, there is scope for a revival among source markets which were hard hit in 2009 such as the Russian Federation or the UK. This could be further leveraged by the fact that a slump is generally followed by a rebound due to pent-up demand. Destinations are expected to actively factor in this opportunity, together with stakeholders maintaining the momentum of the spirit of cooperation and partnership bred by the crisis. The tourism sector is starting 2010 on a stronger basis, having proven flexible in dealing with rapid shifts in demand and volatile market conditions. On a long term perspective, the crisis provided an opportunity to address underlying structural weaknesses and decision takers can seize the opportunity to implement strategies fostering sustainable development and the transformation to the Green Economy. Although recovery seems to be on track, it is important to remain vigilant. “Many countries were quick in reacting to the crisis and actively implemented measures to mitigate its impact and stimulate recovery. Although we expect growth to return in 2010, a premature withdrawal of these stimulus measures and the temptation to impose extra taxes may jeopardize the pace of rebound in tourism. As highlighted in the UNWTO Roadmap for Recovery (see page 9), the sector can make a vital contribution to economic recovery, particularly as a primary vehicle for job creation and the transformation to the Green Economy. But to do so we need serious global policies that are supportive of tourism said Mr. Rifai.

Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) www.unwto.org